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Global Academic Journal of Economics and Business
Volume-8 | Issue-04
Original Research Article
Integrating Rolling Forecasts, Working-Capital Analytics, and Debt Covenant Monitoring for Financial Resilience in Saudi Automotive Groups under Vision 2030
Muhammad Talha
Published : Aug. 1, 2026
DOI : https://doi.org/10.36348/gajeb.2026.v08i04.031
Abstract
Saudi automotive groups are entering a capital-intensive phase shaped by localisation, electric-vehicle investment, dealership expansion, imported components, and tighter financing conditions. These developments require a financial resilience system that connects forward-looking planning with daily liquidity control and contractual debt discipline. This review examines how rolling forecasts, working-capital analytics, and debt covenant monitoring can be integrated for Saudi automotive groups under Vision 2030. A structured review of peer-reviewed studies and authoritative reports published between 2020 and 2025 was undertaken across management accounting, corporate finance, supply-chain finance, automotive operations, and Saudi policy. The synthesis shows that each practice is useful independently but materially stronger when linked through common drivers, assumptions, definitions, and escalation rules. Rolling forecasts translate market and operating signals into updated cash, profit, balance-sheet, and funding outlooks. Working-capital analytics reveal liquidity trapped in vehicles, parts, receivables, supplier terms, and intercompany balances. Covenant monitoring converts these forecasts into quantified headroom, breach probability, and actions before limits are reached. The paper proposes an operating model built around driver-based forecasting, thirteen-week cash visibility, cash-conversion diagnostics, covenant headroom curves, and decision gates. Financial resilience is presented as an organisational capability rather than a collection of reports, supporting faster correction, lender confidence, disciplined growth, and alignment with Vision 2030.

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