Industrial Value-Chain Analytics for Localization and Economic Diversification in Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030
Abstract
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 places industrial development, localization, non-oil growth and stronger participation in regional and global supply chains at the center of economic transformation. However, localization policies can produce limited domestic value when they focus only on final assembly, first-tier procurement or aggregate import substitution. Sustainable industrial diversification requires a deeper understanding of how value is distributed across upstream inputs, intermediate processing, core manufacturing, industrial services and downstream activities. This paper develops an industrial value-chain analytics framework for identifying and prioritizing localization opportunities in Saudi Arabia. Using a structured review and conceptual-framework methodology, the study integrates recent literature on global value chains, industrial upgrading, supply-chain resilience, Industry 4.0 and economic diversification with official Saudi Vision 2030, National Industrial Strategy and GASTAT evidence. The framework combines five analytical stages: market and trade screening, value-chain decomposition, domestic capability mapping, gap and linkage analytics, and opportunity prioritization. It proposes a Value-Chain Localization Potential Index that assesses domestic value capture, market attractiveness, capability readiness, linkage intensity, strategic importance and export potential. The analysis demonstrates that localization should be evaluated according to depth and connectivity rather than the location of final production alone. Upstream materials, components, tooling, engineering, maintenance, testing, logistics and downstream services can generate substantial economic spillovers even when complete product localization is not feasible. The proposed approach supports Saudi Vision 2030 by helping policymakers, industrial organizations and investors identify value-chain nodes that can strengthen supplier ecosystems, increase domestic value added, attract technology-intensive investment, improve resilience and support non-oil exports. The paper concludes that data-driven value-chain analytics can help Saudi Arabia shift from isolated localization projects toward connected industrial ecosystems capable of sustained upgrading and economic diversification.