Risk-Informed Regional Development Planning for Tourism Giga-Projects in Saudi Arabia: Integrating Infrastructure Safety, Resilience and Sustainable Destination Growth Under Vision 2030
Abstract
The massive tourism initiatives of Saudi Arabia are having a significant impact on the way the country develops geographically, but at the same time their large scale mean that infrastructure, environmental, operational and governance risks are concentrated in destinations whose long-term value relies on reliable services and good ecological conditions. This study presents a regional development approach based on risk considerations which links tourism planning with the resilience of critical infrastructure, the vulnerability of destinations and the governance of megaprojects. In order to achieve this, a structured critical integrative review was carried out using 30 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2025, those being chosen because of their direct relevance to Saudi or Gulf planning, tourism resilience, infrastructure systems, sustainability or the delivery of megaprojects. The findings indicate that risk should be seen as a development condition which varies from one location to another rather than as a factor that is only considered at the project level. Destinations situated along the coast, in the desert with heritage sites, in the mountains, in metropolitan areas and those focused on pilgrimage face different combinations of risks relating to heat, flooding, water supply, the environment, mobility, supply chains and demand, while common dependencies on power, water, transport, digital networks and emergency services lead to the possibility of cascading disruptions. The review also points out a gap in governance between optimisation at the project level and the overall performance of the regional system. In order to bridge this gap, the paper puts forward a six-stage planning framework that incorporates hazard and vulnerability assessment, mapping of infrastructure interdependencies, scenario stress testing, portfolio sequencing, resilience safeguards and adaptive monitoring. This framework transforms resilience from a concept associated with recovery into a development criterion that determines where, when and how tourism capacity is added. This method offers a practical means of coordinating destination growth, infrastructure safety, environmental limits and the creation of regional value in accordance with Vision 2030.