This study examines the influence of China–Zambia bilateral trade relations on Zambia's economic growth over the period 1998–2023, grounded in four theoretical frameworks the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis, the Heckscher-Ohlin Factor Endowment Theory, Mercantilist Trade Theory, and Dependency Theory that collectively capture the growth-enhancing and structurally constraining dimensions of the bilateral trade relationship. Using annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicators and the World Integrated Trade Solution database, three Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing models were estimated, each incorporating a distinct bilateral trade indicator export to China, imports from China, and the bilateral trade balance alongside inflation, exchange rate, and external debt as macroeconomic control variables. The ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of a stable long-run cointegrating relationship across all three model specifications, with F-statistics of 5.214, 4.882, and 5.637 respectively exceeding the 5% upper critical bound of 4.01. Long-run estimates reveal that exports to China exert a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth (β = 0.0048, p < 0.01), while imports from China exhibit a negative and significant long-run effect (β = −0.0031, p < 0.05), and the bilateral trade balance carries the strongest positive coefficient (β = 0.0057, p < 0.01), collectively confirming a structurally asymmetric trade relationship in which commodity export revenues drive growth while manufactured import dependency constrains domestic value addition. Short-run error correction estimates further confirm that between 61.7% and 70.1% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected within one year, reflecting moderately fast adjustment dynamics, while inflation and exchange rate depreciation consistently exert negative short-run and long-run pressures on growth. A comprehensive battery of post-estimation diagnostics including the Breusch–Godfrey LM, Breusch–Pagan, Jarque–Bera, and Ramsey RESET tests confirms that all models satisfy the classical regression assumptions, and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests verify structural parameter stability throughout the sample period despite major macroeconomic shocks including the Global Financial Crisis, the 2015–2016 commodity price collapse, and the COVID-19 contraction. The study concludes that while China has become a central engine of Zambia's trade expansion and a significant contributor to GDP growth particularly during commodity super-cycle phases Zambia's persistent structural dependence on primary commodity exports and manufactured goods imports renders its growth path highly vulnerable to external demand shocks and copper price volatility, underscoring the urgent need for export diversification, domestic value addition, and strategic trade policy reform to translate bilateral trade engagement into more inclusive and sustainable long-run economic development.